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Seasonality in the San Francisco Homes Market

Seasonality in the San Francisco Homes Market August 2014 Report by Paragon Real Estate Group Seasonality typically affects inventory levels, buyer demand and median home prices, often in significant ways – as is illustrated in the following charts. However, it is not the only factor affecting market conditions and trends – general economic conditions, new […]

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Bay Area Home Price Report

Bay Area Real Estate Values Bay Area Luxury Home Sales San Francisco Home Prices by Neighborhood August 2014 Report by Paragon Real Estate Group ———————————————————— Bay Area Home Prices – Mapped Our updated map of comparative house values around the Bay Area: The trend virtually everywhere around the Bay has been continued appreciation since the […]

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Real estate cycles from another angle

Over the past 30+ years, the period between a recovery beginning and a major “market adjustment” (or bubble popping) has run 5 to 7 years. We are currently about 2.5 years into the current recovery.

Periods of market recession/doldrums following the popping of a bubble have typically lasted about 4 years. (The 2001 dotcom bubble and 9-11 crisis drop being the exception.) Generally speaking, within about 2 years of a new recovery commencing, previous peak values (i.e. those at the height of the previous bubble) are re-attained – among other reasons, there is the recapture of inflation during the doldrums years and simple pent-up demand.
Periods of market recession/doldrums following the popping of a bubble have typically lasted about 4 years. (The 2001 dotcom bubble and 9-11 crisis drop being the exception.) Generally speaking, within about 2 years of a new recovery commencing, previous peak values (i.e. those at the height of the previous bubble) are re-attained – among other reasons, there is the recapture of inflation during the doldrums years and simple pent-up demand.

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New Case-Shiller report: SF Metro Area bumps up again

While the nation as a whole saw a tiny decrease in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index in the January report released today, the San Francisco Metro Area Index (for 5 northern counties) bumped up again. The C-S Index for higher priced houses has now completely re-attained the previous market peak set in 2006, as measured by January data points. The city of San Francisco itself has exceeded the rise in the 5-county area and has generally surpassed previous peak values – many SF neighborhoods by substantial margins.

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New Case-Shiller Index Released

The November Case-Shiller Index report was released this week. Below are three looks at what has happened in Bay Area “high-tier-priced” houses (currently delineated as those selling for more than $801,000) since 2013 began, over the past 2 years – as the recovery really began in early 2012 – and since 1996, to show market cycles. Right now, ignoring small fluctuations up and down, home prices are basically continuing on the plateau they reached after the huge spring surge in appreciation.

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